Investing in the US market provides Indian investors a hedge against the rupee's long-term tendency to depreciate against the dollar.
Supply chain constraints will keep plaguing automobile companies even though demand significantly improved resulting in a 13 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in sales in financial year 2021-22 (FY22). Executives at auto firms fear that the Russia-Ukraine war will further dent the sector's prospects of recovery as supply chains face more disruptions. "The visibility in the supply side is so hazy that it is difficult to give even one quarter projection. But all the parameters of demand like pending bookings and enquiries are increasing.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
Modi has taken a slew of measures to attract investment, but he has yet to initiate steps that could help repair corporate balance sheets.
Covid-19, US yields, dollar to weigh on equity flows in the near term.
All-out efforts are needed to mitigate the adverse impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the RBI will use any instrument necessary to revive growth and preserve financial stability, according to the minutes of the central bank's policy meeting.
The value of the foreign portfolio investors' (FPI) holdings in the domestic equities reached $667 billion in three months ended September 2021, a surge of 13 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to a Morningstar report. This was largely on the back of strong performance by the Indian equity markets along with net inflows from FPIs at the later part of the quarter. "At the end of the quarter ended September 2021, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities shot up sharply to $667 billion, which was considerably higher than the $592 billion recorded in the previous quarter, a spike of around 13 per cent," the report noted.
With domestic retail fuel prices jumping to record high on rising international oil rates, India on Thursday pressed oil cartel OPEC for 'affordable' oil price within a 'reasonable band' and that the producers should phase out production cuts. OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia have traditionally been India's principal oil source. But, OPEC and its allies, called OPEC+, ignoring its call for ease supply curbs had led to the world's third-biggest oil importer tap newer sources to diversify its crude oil imports. As a result, OPEC's share in India's oil imports has dropped to about 60 per cent in May from 74 per cent in the previous month.
The growth had slumped to sub-5 per cent in the earlier two consecutive fiscals.
Organisations believe that a stable govt will boost their business
The land acquisition bill is a catalyst to investment and passing the bill will improve India's business environment.
Citing faster-than-expected recovery, rising consumer confidence and the resultant spending spike, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised upwards its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent from 8.9 per cent in September. The brokerage also sees the economy clipping at 7.7 per cent in FY23 but moderating to 6 per cent in FY24, as it expects the benefit of the low-interest rate regime to end by the end of FY23, and it sees the central bank hiking policy rates by 50 bps in the second half of the next fiscal. The Reserve Bank also forecasts 9.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal while the average projection ranges from 8.5 to 10 per cent.
'In the short term, we may see some disruptions due to Covid, but in the medium-to-long term, we should keep an eye on US inflation and 10-year bond yields.'
Attributing the growth to an upswing in consumption and investment, the World Bank has said India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy in the world.
'The question is, how soon we can expect to re-attain the pre-lockdown levels of output and income.'
'It is going to be a tough balance for the RBI to manage economic stability and ensure smooth government borrowing.'
RBI must balance the need for improving domestic bank credit demand and respond to lower inflation.
Fitch Solutions on Thursday said the new climate targets announced at the COP26 summit by Prime minister Narendra Modi pose an upside risk to its outlook for renewable growth in the country. With the new targets, it expected to see attempts to alleviate the issues regarding supply chains, manufacturing and project development that have long plagued renewable proliferation.
According to the IHS Markit India Business Outlook, predictions of softer activity growth underpin the downward revisions of profit outlook, subdued hiring plans and relatively muted capital expenditure.
Weaker-than-expected growth in US jobs in recent months had already forced US central bankers to put off a rate hike at their meeting last week
Indian economy is likely to expand in the range of 5.4 to 5.9 per cent this fiscal, as per government estimates.
The global ratings agency, however, cautioned that high debt burden remains a constraint on the country's credit profile.
Although the first woman to hold the position of chief economist at IMF, it would be wrong to see her appointment through the lens of gender
The record breaking spree was led by index heavyweights, financials and metal stocks.
The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
The drop in oil to around $50 a barrel this year has triggered steep cutbacks in production of US shale oil
India will also play an increasingly important role as one of the Asia-Pacific region's major economic growth engines, helping to drive Asian regional trade and investment flows.
As he projected a grim outlook for the economy, RBI Governor said that amidst this encircling gloom, agriculture and allied activities have provided a beacon of hope on the back of an increase of 3.7 per cent in foodgrains production to a new record.
India, which appears to have been pushed back to being the world's sixth biggest economy in 2020, will again overtake the UK to become the fifth largest in 2025 and race to the third spot by 2030, a think tank said on Saturday. India had overtaken the UK in 2019 to become the fifth largest economy in the world but has been relegated to 6th spot in 2020. "India has been knocked off course somewhat through the impact of the pandemic. "As a result, after overtaking the UK in 2019, the UK overtakes India again in this year's forecasts and stays ahead till 2024 before India takes over again," the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said in an annual report published on Saturday. The UK appears to have overtaken India again during 2020 as a result of the weakness of the rupee, it said.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said uncertainty over the bidder consortiums and process complexity, including valuation, may lead to potential delays in privatisation of India's second-largest fuel retailer, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL). Affirming BPCL's rating at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, Fitch said it continues to treat the potential divestment of the company by the Indian government as an event risk. "Bidders are conducting due diligence, but uncertainty over the bidder consortiums and process complexity, including valuation, may lead to potential delays.
Moody's on Monday slashed India's growth forecast for 2020 to 5.4 per cent from 6.6 per cent projected earlier, on slower than expected economic recovery. In its update on Global Macro Outlook, Moody's Investors Service said India's economy has decelerated rapidly over the last 2 years and economic recovery is likely to be 'shallow'.
'Our competitiveness with China is very important.' 'If the exchange rate depreciates, it is good for us because it helps in our competitiveness.'
Amid slowing growth and low interest rates, investors will need to focus on stock-picking, suggests John Remmert.
Prime Minister Modi, who is in Japan on a two-day visit to attend a summit of the Quad leaders at the invitation of his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida, penned an op-ed on the vibrant relations between India and Japan in the Yomiuri Shimbun.
It is by now quite clear that in all likelihood the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in its next meeting in mid-December.
'Breaking down silos and ensuring a more integrated governance process is just as important to performance.' 'It has been a major priority in the last six years, especially in national security,' External Affairs Minister Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar points out when delivering the Sardar Patel Memorial Lecture-2020: India and the Post-Covid World.
India's services sector activities eased to a three-month low in April, as the rise in business activity was constrained by the pandemic and sentiment towards growth prospects faded, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell to 54 in April from 54.6 in March, the slowest increase in output in three months. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Weakness in dollar in the overseas market also boosted the rupee value
However, India is likely to regain the tag of the fastest growth emerging economies of the world in 2018.
India deserves a rating upgrade in view of improvement in macro-economic situation, the conservative outlook of Standard & Poor's notwithstanding, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said.
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